What the Texas Housing Market Will Look Like in 2023

Over the past ten years, Texas has had some of the highest rates of housing appreciation in the U.S. Based on the most recent data gathered by NeighborhoodScout, housing prices in Texas have increased by 99.56 percent over the last ten years, or 7.15 percent annually. Texas has been one of the best long-term real estate investments in the U. S. during the past ten years if you’re a home buyer or investor.

Texas Housing Prediction 

In 2023, the housing market in Texas is predicted to expand. To put it another way, if you’re considering buying a home this year, you can start making plans today to be a good buyer in 2023. Although there are some regional differences, the Texas housing market reflects greater national trends. An imbalance in supply and demand has spurred rapid housing appreciation throughout the state.

You are in a good position if you want to sell your house in 2022. Although it is not anticipated that Texas home prices will rise as quickly or drastically as they did in 2021, buyer demand is still strong and is not expected to decline. As bidding battles are frequent, many bidders will likely show interest in your property. Now is the ideal time to sell if you are not worried about buying a new home with perhaps higher borrowing rates.

Analysts are still predicting a boom in home sales two years after the pandemic began. Sadly, this will result in the exclusion of a great number of people. The affordability issue may eventually cause demand to drop to more sustainable levels. The Texas housing market will probably remain strong overall, albeit not to the same level as in 2021.

Current Market Trends in Texan Housing

Aggressive monetary policy slows sales by dragging down the Texas housing market. The housing market continues to weaken as house inventories rise and prices decline. The high demand for buildings indicates that many purchasers are delaying big purchases despite a national fall in construction permits—homes with lower prices, popular with young families and first-time purchasers, sold for less.

Record prices and skyrocketing mortgage rates discouraged buyers, as indicated by the most recent report from Texas A&M University’s Texas Real Estate Research Center. The Data Relevance Program of the Texas Real Estate Research Center indicates a decline in July’s home sales. The state’s sales volume decreased by roughly 3,000 transactions, or 28121 when seasonally adjusted. To further understand the future look of the Texas housing market in 2023, Chris D. Bentley, a renowned real estate broker in Dallas, points out the four most fundamental areas for consideration. 

Housing Demand in Texas

Sales fell in all main cities due to demand. While the Dallas-Fort Worth area and San Antonio saw a decline of 8%, closed sales in Houston and Austin plummeted by nearly 16% MOM. Every prospective homeowner must overcome financial obstacles, but first-time buyers were severely hurt by affordability, which decreased the number of homes sold for under $300,000. Texas’ average days on the market (DOM) stayed low at 34 days, showing a persistent imbalance in negotiating power. 

Housing Prices

Texas’s median home price dropped by $5,000 to $344,000 in July this year. Prices decreased everywhere. Austin ($510,000) and DFW ($406,000) both suffered losses of $7,000 and $8,000 in a single month. San Antonio ($328,000) and Houston ($338,000) both experienced losses of $3,000 and $4,000 in the meantime. Austin prices dropped $33,000 in four months, which was the most during the state-wide decline. Even though housing prices are declining, they are still 13.2 percent greater than they were a year ago.

Housing Supply

While it is anticipated that homebuilding will slow down in 2023, the state’s supply is beginning to build up. Since May 2022, active listings have increased by over 17,000 units. After the unusually low inventories of the previous two years, this easing of home availability signals a breakthrough. Texas’ housing supply, which had fallen below two months of inventory (MOI), increased to 2.2 MOI as a consequence. According to the Texas Real Estate Research Center, a balanced market has six to 6.5 months of available inventory. Dallas remains the most congested at 1.9 MOI, while San Antonio maintained the lead with 2.5 MOI.

Employment Situation

Home sales often rise and fall in lockstep with economic activity because they are so closely tied to the state of an economy. The money supply gets more constricted as economies contract. Fewer people are buying homes as it becomes harder to secure loans. Stricter credit requirements make fewer buyers available, which causes inventories of homes to increase or causes sales to take longer. 

After experiencing a post-pandemic recovery, the Texas Leading Economic Index, which measures future spatial shifts in the business cycle, broke that trend and began to decline for the third consecutive month. Rising concerns about a recession were the cause of the top index’s decline. After rising in April, the Texas Consumer Confidence Index fell as customers’ concerns about inflation and the Fed’s rate increases reduced their purchasing power.

Considering Texas’ unemployment rate is typically equal to or lower than the national average, an influx of out-of-state workers rather than a sluggish labor market may be to blame for the state’s high rate. The state’s workforce participation rate was 63.8%, higher than the 62.1% national average. Texas is growing and has completely recovered. The national workforce is down 1.3% from pre-pandemic peak levels as workers fear a recession. Texas’ private-sector payrolls increased by 716,300, or 6.6 percent, over the previous 12 months. Each of the last 12 months has seen a rise in Texas’ private sector payroll employment.

To conclude, the future of the Texas housing market in 2023, unlike many years ago, shall be faced with an unmatched competitive influx of new buyers and tenants. The most notable areas to consider in 2023 are the housing demand in Texas, housing prices, housing Supply, and Employment Situation.

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